The Poole Diabetes Study: how many cases of Type 2 diabetes are diagnosed each year during normal health care in a defined community?

We have investigated the incidence of newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in the Poole area and extrapolated it to the rest of the UK. Methods: this prospective observational study used a surveillance programme in primary and secondary care. We identified all cases of newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes mellitus occurring from ist May 1996 to 30th June 1998 through the normal health care process without ally active screening in 186889 people registered with 24 primary care practices in the Poole area. Results: the 1996 prevalence of diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in this population was 1.59 (95% CI 1.53-1.65%)%. During the first 24 months of the study, 706 new cases of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, 383 men and 324 women, were identified. The crude annual incidence of newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes, thus was 1.93/1000 (95% CI 1.73-2.13%) and age/sex adjusted incidence was 1.67/1000 (95% CI 1.49-1.84%). The age-adjusted incidence was higher in men, 1.86/1000 (95% CI 1.60-2.13), than in women, 1.48/1000 (95% CI 1.25-1.71%), relative risk 1.26 (95% CI 0.997-1.527%), but this difference did not reach statistical significance. Mean HbA(1c) at diagnosis was 10.8 (S.D. 2.9%)%. Men were younger at diagnosis than women (mean age, 62.9 vs. 65.9%, P<0.01). Conclusion: in UK, prior to the change in the WHO diagnostic criteria for diabetes, we estimate that over 98 000 new cases of Type 2 diabetes were diagnosed each year. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.