Fuzzy seasonality forecasting

In this paper, a fuzzy forecasting technique for seasonality in the time-series data is presented using the following procedure. First, with the fuzzy regression analysis the fuzzy trend of a time-series is analyzed. Then the fuzzy seasonality is defined by realizing the membership grades of the seasons to the fuzzy regression model. Both making fuzzy forecast and crisp forecast are investigated. Seasonal fuzziness and trends are analyzed. The method is applied to the sales forecasting problem of a food distribution company. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.