A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales

被引：184

作者：

Guemas, Virginie ^{[1
,2
]}

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward ^{[3
]}

Chevallier, Matthieu ^{[2
,4
]}

Day, Jonathan J. ^{[5
]}

Deque, Michel ^{[2
]}

Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. ^{[1
,6
]}

Fuckar, Neven S. ^{[1
]}

Germe, Agathe ^{[2
,7
]}

Hawkins, Ed ^{[5
]}

Keeley, Sarah ^{[8
]}

Koenigk, Torben ^{[9
]}

Salas y Melia, David ^{[2
]}

Tietsche, Steffen ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Inst Catala Ciencies Clima IC3, Climate Forecasting Unit, Carrer Trueta 203, Barcelona 08005, Spain

[2] Meteo France, Ctr Natl Recherches Meteorol, Grp Etud Atmosphere Meteorol, UMR3589, Toulouse, France

[3] Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[4] MERCATOR Ocean, Toulouse, France

[5] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, NCAS Climate, Reading RG6 2AH, Berks, England

[6] Inst Catalana Recerca & Estudis Avancats, Barcelona, Spain

[7] LOCEAN, Lab Oceanog & Climat, Paris, France

[8] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Pk, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England

[9] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden

来源：

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2016年 / 142卷 / 695期

关键词：

sea ice; Arctic; predictability; perfect model; prediction; initialization; ensembles; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; GREAT SALINITY ANOMALIES; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; THICKNESS DISTRIBUTION; SYSTEM MODEL; POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; COUPLED MODEL;

D O I：

10.1002/qj.2401

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy and water budget and has a substantial impact on local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea-ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea-ice predictability on these time-scales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea-ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea-ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea-ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

引用

页码：546 / 561

页数：16

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