Characterizing the spatial distribution of an undiscovered hydrocarbon resource: the Keg River Reef play, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

Specific maps constructed using integrated exploration history data, geological play characteristics and seismic prospecting activity are useful for both petroleum exploration and resource management. Geoscience data can be combined with exploration results to predict the possible locations and sizes of undiscovered pools in the Middle Devonian Keg River Reef play. The combination of all available information gives a better estimate of petroleum occurrence than any individual data set. A prior probability of hydrocarbon occurrence, estimated using exploration results, can be updated using key geological elements that reflect factors controlling pools locations and sizes. The analysis of geophysical survey information and the consideration of exhaustion of undiscovered potential by successful and unsuccessful exploration wells provides a realistic volumetric parameter that illustrates the space available for undiscovered pools. The construction of a favorability map, using a combination of the posterior probability map of hydrocarbon occurrence and the volumetric variable, produces a risk-weighted reservoir space that outlines the possible locations and sizes of undiscovered petroleum resources in a play. The favorability map, itself a useful tool for both hydrocarbon exploration and petroleum resource management, provides a meaningful method for describing the spatial distribution of undiscovered pools and fields predicted using other stochastic resource assessment methods.