Incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark and predicted future number of cases among men

Objectives This study analyzed the incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark in order to predict the future number of cases that will occur among Danish men. Methods The 1912 cases of malignant mesothelioma reported to the Danish Cancer registry in 1943-1993 were analyzed in order to describe current incidence rates. By a Poisson regression model the relative risks of synthetic birth cohorts were estimated and used in the prediction of the future number of cases that will occur among Danish men. Results The incidence rate increased to 1.33 per 100 000 person-years in 1983-1987 among men and to 0.51 in 1973-1977 among women. From the Poisson regression model, the risk for birth cohorts of men, relative to the 1940-1944 cohort, peaked in the 1940-1944 cohort and decreased to 0.57 in the 1950-1954 cohort. The age-specific incidence rate peaked at 246 per 100 000 person-years in the age group 80-84 years. The future annual number of mesothelioma cases is expected to peak around 2015 with 93 cases among men born before 1955. Conclusions The fit of the models was not ideal, but with careful interpretation of the results, it was concluded that a further increase in the number of mesothelioma cases can be expected, and the effect of regulating the environmental exposure to asbestos cannot be expected within the next 10-15 years.