The site-specific epidemiology of hip fracture in the Australian Capital Territory with projections for the first half of the 21st century: Implications for clinical management and health services planning

To analyse the site-specific epidemiology of hip fracture (HF) for the ACT and to project HF up to 2051. Age- and sex-specific rates of HF and projections of the number of HFs were calculated by applying the age- and sex-specific rates to the median population projections. Analysis of patterns of HF by anatomical site of fracture revealed a diverse relationship according to age and sex. Fracture rates were higher in men before age 60 (1.8 : 1), and thereafter in women (3.1 : 1). In the age group of 60-64 years, the female : male ratio was 8.2 : 1 for cervical versus 1.8 : 1 for trochanteric fractures. Treatment for osteoporosis was under-utilised. HF in people aged > 60 years will almost double by 2011, and increase 2.5-fold and 5.4-fold by the years 2021 and 2051, respectively. The greatest increase will occur in older men. The number of HFs in the first half of the 21st century will increase dramatically. Aetiological and pathophysiological differences in HF emphasise the need to individualise preventative strategies.