Including systematic uncertainties in confidence interval construction for Poisson statistics

被引:215
作者
Conrad, J [1 ]
Botner, O [1 ]
Hallgren, A [1 ]
de los Heros, CP [1 ]
机构
[1] Uppsala Univ, Div High Energy Phys, S-75121 Uppsala, Sweden
关键词
D O I
10.1103/PhysRevD.67.012002
中图分类号
P1 [天文学];
学科分类号
0704 ;
摘要
One way to incorporate systematic uncertainties into the calculation of confidence intervals is by integrating over probability density functions parametrizing the uncertainties. In this paper we present a development of this method which takes into account uncertainties in the prediction of background processes and uncertainties in the signal detection efficiency and background efficiency, and allows for a correlation between the signal and background detection efficiencies. We implement this method with the likelihood ratio (usually denoted as the Feldman-Cousins) approach with and without conditioning. We present studies of coverage for the likelihood ratio and Neyman ordering schemes. In particular, we present two different types of coverage tests for the case where systematic uncertainties are included. To illustrate the method we show the relative effect of including systematic uncertainties in the case of the dark matter search as performed by modern neutrino telescopes.
引用
收藏
页数:11
相关论文
共 22 条
[1]   Limits to the muon flux from WIMP annihilation in the center of the Earth with the AMANDA detector -: art. no. 032006 [J].
Ahrens, J ;
Andrés, E ;
Bai, X ;
Barouch, G ;
Barwick, SW ;
Bay, RC ;
Becka, T ;
Becker, KH ;
Bertrand, D ;
Biron, A ;
Botner, O ;
Bouchta, A ;
Carius, S ;
Chen, A ;
Chirkin, D ;
Conrad, J ;
Cooley, J ;
Costa, CGS ;
Cowen, DF ;
Dalberg, E ;
De Clercq, C ;
DeYoung, T ;
Desiati, P ;
Dewulf, JP ;
Doksus, P ;
Edsjö, J ;
Ekström, P ;
Feser, T ;
Gaisser, TK ;
Gaug, M ;
Gerhardt, L ;
Goldschmidt, A ;
Goobar, A ;
Hallgren, A ;
Halzen, F ;
Hanson, K ;
Hardtke, R ;
Hauschildt, T ;
Hellwig, M ;
Hill, GC ;
Hulth, PO ;
Hundertmark, S ;
Jacobsen, J ;
Karle, A ;
Kim, J ;
Koci, B ;
Köpke, L ;
Kowalski, M ;
Lamoureux, JI ;
Leich, H .
PHYSICAL REVIEW D, 2002, 66 (03)
[2]  
AHRENS J, ASTROPH0206487
[3]  
CONRAD J, 2002, P C ADV STAT TECHN P
[4]   INCORPORATING SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES INTO AN UPPER LIMIT [J].
COUSINS, RD ;
HIGHLAND, VL .
NUCLEAR INSTRUMENTS & METHODS IN PHYSICS RESEARCH SECTION A-ACCELERATORS SPECTROMETERS DETECTORS AND ASSOCIATED EQUIPMENT, 1992, 320 (1-2) :331-335
[5]   Comment on "Improved probability method for estimating signal in the presence of background" [J].
Cousins, RD .
PHYSICAL REVIEW D, 2000, 62 (09) :2
[6]  
EADIE WT, 1982, STAT METHODS EXPT PH
[7]   Unified approach to the classical statistical analysis of small signals [J].
Feldman, GJ ;
Cousins, RD .
PHYSICAL REVIEW D, 1998, 57 (07) :3873-3889
[8]  
FELDMAN GJ, 2000, P C ADV STAT TECHN P
[9]  
GAISSER T, 2001, P 17 INT COSM RAY C
[10]   Treatment of the background error in the statistical analysis of Poisson processes [J].
Giunti, C .
PHYSICAL REVIEW D, 1999, 59 (11)