The contribution of megacities to regional sulfur pollution in Asia

Asia is undergoing rapid urbanization resulting in increasing air pollution threats in its cities. The contribution of megacities to sulfur emissions and pollution in Asia is studied over a 25-year period (1975-2000) using a multi-layer Lagrangian puff transport model. Asian megacities cover <2% of the land area but emit similar to16% of the total anthropogenic sulfur emissions of Asia. It is shown that urban sulfur emissions contribute over 30% to the regional pollution levels in large parts of Asia. The average contribution of megacities over the western Pacific increased from < 5% in 1975 to > 10% in 2000. Two future emission scenarios are evaluated for 2020-"business as usual (BAU)" and "maximum feasible controls (MAXF)" to establish the range of reductions possible for these cities. The MAXF scenario would result in 2020 S-emissions that are similar to80% lower than those in 2000, at an estimated control cost of US $87 billion per year (1995 US$) for all of Asia. An urban scale analysis of sulfur pollution for four megacities-Shanghai, and Chongqing in China; Seoul in South Korea; and Mumbai (formerly Bombay) in India is presented. If pollution levels were allowed to increase under BAU, over 30 million people in these cities alone would be exposed to levels in excess of the WHO guidelines. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.