Future climatic changes: Are we entering an exceptionally long interglacial?

被引:89
作者
Loutre, MF [1 ]
Berger, A [1 ]
机构
[1] Catholic Univ Louvain, Inst Astron & Geophys L Lemaitre, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium
关键词
D O I
10.1023/A:1005559827189
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Various experiments have been conducted using the Louvain-la-Neuve two-dimensional Northern Hemisphere climate model (LLN 2-D NH) to simulate climate for the next 130 kyr into the future. Simulations start with values representing the present-day Northern Hemisphere ice sheet, using different scenarios for future CO2 concentrations. The sensitivity of the model to the initial size of the Greenland ice sheet, and to possible impacts of human activities, has also been tested. Most of the natural scenarios indicate that: (i) the climate is likely to experience a long lasting (similar to 50 kyr) interglacial; (ii) the next glacial maximum is expected to be most intense at around 100 kyr after present (AP), with a likely interstadial at similar to 60 kyr AP; and (iii) after 100 kyr AP continental ice rapidly melts, leading to an ice volume minimum 20 kyr later. However, the amplitude and, to a lesser extent, the timing of future climatic changes depend on the CO2 scenario and on the initial conditions related to the assumed present-day ice volume. According to our modelling experiments, man's activities over the next centuries may significantly affect the ice-sheet's behaviour for approximately the next 50 kyr. Finally, the existence of thresholds in CO2 and insolation, earlier shown to be significant for the past, is confirmed to be also important for the future.
引用
收藏
页码:61 / 90
页数:30
相关论文
共 93 条
[1]   On the seasonal effect of orbital variations on the climates of the next 4000 years [J].
Adem, J .
ANNALES GEOPHYSICAE-ATMOSPHERES HYDROSPHERES AND SPACE SCIENCES, 1996, 14 (11) :1198-1206
[2]  
ALLEY RB, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359
[3]   VOSTOK ICE CORE PROVIDES 160,000-YEAR RECORD OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 [J].
BARNOLA, JM ;
RAYNAUD, D ;
KOROTKEVICH, YS ;
LORIUS, C .
NATURE, 1987, 329 (6138) :408-414
[4]   WATER-VAPOR, CO2 AND INSOLATION OVER THE LAST GLACIAL INTERGLACIAL CYCLES [J].
BERGER, A ;
TRICOT, C ;
GALLEE, H ;
LOUTRE, MF .
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 1993, 341 (1297) :253-261
[5]   INSOLATION VALUES FOR THE CLIMATE OF THE LAST 10000000 YEARS [J].
BERGER, A ;
LOUTRE, MF .
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 1991, 10 (04) :297-317
[6]   Modelling northern hemisphere ice volume over the last 3 Ma [J].
Berger, A ;
Li, XS ;
Loutre, MF .
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 1999, 18 (01) :1-11
[7]   Sensitivity of the LLN climate model to the astronomical and CO2 forcings over the last 200 ky [J].
Berger, A ;
Loutre, MF ;
Gallee, H .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 1998, 14 (09) :615-629
[8]  
Berger A, 1996, CR ACAD SCI II A, V323, P1
[9]   ENTERING THE GLACIATION WITH A 2-D COUPLED CLIMATE MODEL [J].
BERGER, A ;
FICHEFET, T ;
GALLEE, H ;
TRICOT, C ;
VANYPERSELE, JP .
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 1992, 11 (04) :481-493
[10]   GLACIATION AND DEGLACIATION MECHANISMS IN A COUPLED 2-DIMENSIONAL CLIMATE-ICE-SHEET MODEL [J].
BERGER, A ;
GALLEE, H ;
TRICOT, C .
JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY, 1993, 39 (131) :45-49