Predicting survival in adults with invasive aspergillosis during therapy for hematological malignancies or after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: Single-center analysis and validation of the Seattle, French, and Strasbourg prognostic indexes

In this retrospective monocenter study, we analyzed the outcomes of 130 adult hematological patients who developed a proven (n = 23), probable (n = 71), and possible (n = 36) invasive aspergillosis (IA) in a 13-year period. Forty-nine patients (38%) were recipients of an allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AlloHSCT). The main goal of the study was the identification of prognostic factors for 4-month aspergillosis free survival (AFS) and overall survival (OS). IA was identified as the main cause of death in 27/49 recipients of an AlloHSCT (55%) and 28/81 nontransplanted patients (35%). Diagnosis of IA at or before 2000 had a negative impact in both 4-month AFS and 4-month OS in the entire group. In multivariate analysis performed separately for nontransplanted and allo-HSCT patients, five variables (excluding the year of diagnosis) decreased 4-month AFS: (i) impairment of one organ function (OF), (ii) impairment of two or more OFs (two points), (iii) disseminated IA, (iv) neutropenia lasting more than 10 days (non-AlloHSCT group only) or monocytopenia (<0.1 x 10(9)/l) [AlloHSCT group only], and (v) high-dose steroids (non-AlloHSCT group only) or an alternative donor (AlloHSCT group only). According to the number of adverse risk factors, three prognostic subgroups were defined in non-transplanted and alloHSCT patients with good (97% and 78% AFS), intermediate (73% and 32% AFS) and poor prognosis (20% and 11% AFS) of IA [P < 0.01]. In addition, we validated the French and Seattle prognostic indexes for allo-HSCT recipients and the Strasbourg model for all hematological patients with IA. Am. J. Hematol. 84:571-578, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.