World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model

被引：205

作者：

Krichene, N ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA

来源：

ENERGY ECONOMICS | 2002年 / 24卷 / 06期

关键词：

crude oil; natural gas; prices; output; unit roots; demand and supply elasticities;

D O I：

10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00061-0

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 19181999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.

引用

页码：557 / 576

页数：20

共 16 条

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