Are technology improvements contractionary?

被引:382
作者
Basu, Susanto
Fernald, John G.
Kimball, Miles S.
机构
[1] Boston Coll, Dept Econ, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 USA
[2] Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[3] Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA
[4] Univ Michigan, Dept Econ, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
[5] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1257/aer.96.5.1418
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for aggregation effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns, and imperfect competition. On impact, when technology improves, input use and nonresidential investment fall sharply. Output changes little. With a lag of several years, inputs and investment return to normal and output rises strongly. The standard one-sector real-business-cycle model is not consistent with this evidence. The evidence is consistent, however, with simple sticky-price models, which predict the results we find: when technology improves, inputs and investment generally fall in the short run, and output itself may also fall.
引用
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页码:1418 / 1448
页数:31
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