Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

被引:754
作者
Elliott, Joshua [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Deryng, Delphine [4 ]
Mueller, Christoph [1 ,5 ]
Frieler, Katja [1 ,5 ]
Konzmann, Markus [1 ,5 ]
Gerten, Dieter [1 ,5 ]
Glotter, Michael [6 ]
Floerke, Martina [7 ]
Wada, Yoshihide [8 ]
Best, Neil [1 ]
Eisner, Stephanie [7 ]
Fekete, Balazs M. [9 ]
Folberth, Christian [10 ]
Foster, Ian [1 ,2 ]
Gosling, Simon N. [11 ]
Haddeland, Ingjerd [12 ]
Khabarov, Nikolay [13 ]
Ludwig, Fulco [14 ]
Masaki, Yoshimitsu [15 ]
Olin, Stefan [16 ]
Rosenzweig, Cynthia [3 ,17 ]
Ruane, Alex C. [3 ,17 ]
Satoh, Yusuke [18 ]
Schmid, Erwin [19 ]
Stacke, Tobias [20 ]
Tang, Qiuhong [21 ]
Wisser, Dominik [22 ]
机构
[1] Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
[2] Argonne Natl Lab, Math & Comp Sci Div, Lemont, IL 60439 USA
[3] Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA
[4] Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
[5] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
[6] Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
[7] Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany
[8] Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands
[9] CUNY City Coll, New York, NY 10031 USA
[10] Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland
[11] Univ Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
[12] Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate, N-0301 Oslo, Norway
[13] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program ESM, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
[14] Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, NL-6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands
[15] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan
[16] Lund Univ, S-22362 Lund, Sweden
[17] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
[18] Univ Tokyo, Tokyo 1538505, Japan
[19] Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
[20] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
[21] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
[22] Univ Bonn, Res Dev Ctr, D-53113 Bonn, Germany
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
adaptation; agriculture; hydrology; uncertainty; MODEL DESCRIPTION; REQUIREMENTS; FOOD; SCARCITY; IMPACTS; PART;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.1222474110
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 4001,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
引用
收藏
页码:3239 / 3244
页数:6
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