DISPERSE: A cellular automaton for predicting the distribution of species in a changed climate

Species distribution limits are related to climate variables. Distribution limits are therefore likely to change as the climate changes. A correlative model is constructed relating the British distribution of Hinlantoglossum hircinum (L.) Sprengel. to monthly soil moisture deficits on a 40 km grid. A mask of soils which appear suitable for H. hircinum is constructed on a 10 km scale from a 1 km scale soils dataset. A dynamic model, DISPERSE, is introduced which combines the constructed correlative models with population dynamics and dispersal. DISPERSE is parametrized so that the number of populations of H. hircinum remains stable if the climate does not change. A climate scenario is introduced to DISPERSE which is a re-run using the parameters set above to determine whether the species will spread as the climate changes.