Influence of global climate model selection on runoff impact assessment

被引：75

作者：

Chiew, F. H. S. ^{[1
]}

Teng, J. ^{[1
]}

Vaze, J. ^{[1
]}

Kirono, D. G. C. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

来源：

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY | 2009年 / 379卷 / 1-2期

关键词：

Global climate models; Rainfall; Runoff; GCM assessment; Australia; PRECIPITATION; TEMPERATURE; ELASTICITY; STREAMFLOW; RAINFALL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.004

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

The future rainfall series used to drive hydrological models in many climate change impact on runoff studies are informed by rainfall simulated by global climate models (GCMs). This paper assesses how the choice of GCMs based on their abilities to reproduce the observed historical rainfall can affect runoff impact assessment. The 23 GCMs used in IPCC 4AR are considered together with 1961-2000 observed rainfall data over southeast Australia. The results indicate that most of the GCMs can reproduce the observed spatial mean annual rainfall pattern, but the errors in the mean seasonal and annual rainfall amounts can be significant. The future mean annual rainfall projections averaged across southeast Australia range from -10% to +3% change per degree global warming, which is amplified as -23% to +4% change in the future mean annual runoff. There is no clear difference in the future rainfall projections between the better and poorer GCMs based on their abilities to reproduce the observed historical rainfall, therefore using only the better GCMs or weights to favour the better GCMs give similar runoff impact assessment results as the use of all the 23 GCMs. The range of future runoff in impact assessment studies is probably best determined using future rainfall projections from the majority of available archived GCM simulations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：172 / 180

页数：9

共 30 条

[1] [Anonymous], S E AUSTR CLIM IN FA
[2] Chiew F. H. S., 2002, Mathematical models of small watershed hydrology and applications, P335
[3] Estimating climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia: Method, results, and implications of the modeling method
Chiew, F. H. S.
Teng, J.
Vaze, J.
Post, D. A.
Perraud, J. M.
Kirono, D. G. C.
Viney, N. R.
[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2009, 45
[4] Modelling the impacts of climate change on Australian streamflow
Chiew, FHS
McMahon, TA
[J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2002, 16 (06) : 1235 - 1245
[5] CHIEW FHS, 2008, P WAT 2008 AD APR 20, P1957
[6] Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia
Chiew, Francis H. S.
[J]. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL, 2006, 51 (04) : 613 - 625
[7] *CSIRO AUSTR BUR M, 2007, CLIM CHANG AUSTR
[8] Drosdowsky W, 2002, AUST METEOROL MAG, V51, P1
[9] A two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow
Fu, Guobin
Charles, Stephen P.
Chiew, Francis H. S.
[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2007, 43 (11)
[10] Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode
Hendon, Harry H.
Thompson, David W. J.
Wheeler, Matthew C.
[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2007, 20 (11) : 2452 - 2467

← 1 2 3 →