Aerosol indirect effects - general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

被引：324

作者：

Quaas, J. ^{[1
]}

Ming, Y. ^{[2
]}

Menon, S. ^{[3
,4
]}

Takemura, T. ^{[5
]}

Wang, M. ^{[6
,13
]}

Penner, J. E. ^{[6
]}

Gettelman, A. ^{[7
]}

Lohmann, U. ^{[8
]}

Bellouin, N. ^{[9
]}

Boucher, O. ^{[9
]}

Sayer, A. M. ^{[10
]}

Thomas, G. E. ^{[10
]}

McComiskey, A. ^{[11
]}

Feingold, G. ^{[11
]}

Hoose, C. ^{[12
]}

Kristjansson, J. E. ^{[12
]}

Liu, X. ^{[13
]}

Balkanski, Y. ^{[14
]}

Donner, L. J. ^{[2
]}

Ginoux, P. A. ^{[2
]}

Stier, P. ^{[10
]}

Grandey, B. ^{[10
]}

Feichter, J. ^{[1
]}

Sednev, I. ^{[3
]}

Bauer, S. E. ^{[4
]}

Koch, D. ^{[4
]}

Grainger, R. G. ^{[10
]}

Kirkevag, A. ^{[15
]}

Iversen, T. ^{[12
,15
]}

Seland, O. ^{[15
]}

Easter, R. ^{[13
]}

Ghan, S. J. ^{[13
]}

Rasch, P. J. ^{[13
]}

Morrison, H. ^{[7
]}

Lamarque, J. -F. ^{[7
]}

Iacono, M. J. ^{[16
]}

Kinne, S. ^{[1
]}

Schulz, M. ^{[14
]}

机构：

[1] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany

[2] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA

[3] Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[4] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA

[5] Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka, Japan

[6] Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[7] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[8] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[9] Hadley Ctr, Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England

[10] Univ Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[11] NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA

[12] Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, N-0316 Oslo, Norway

[13] Pacific NW Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA

[14] IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France

[15] Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway

[16] Atmospher & Environm Res Inc, Lexington, KY USA

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS | 2009年 / 9卷 / 22期

关键词：

COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL; CLOUD MICROPHYSICS SCHEME; STRATIFORM CLOUDS; CLIMATE MODEL; PART I; CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION; POLLUTION AEROSOL; OPTICAL-THICKNESS; SINGLE-COLUMN; DUST AEROSOLS;

D O I：

10.5194/acp-9-8697-2009

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (tau(a)) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (N-d) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between tau(a) and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (f(cld)) and tau(a) as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong f(cld)-tau(a) relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between tau(a) and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR-tau(a) relationship show a strong positive correlation between tau(a) and f(cld). The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of tau(a), and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on N-d. Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the aerosol forcings in the models. An estimate of the total short-wave aerosol forcing inferred from the combination of these predictors for the modelled forcings with the satellite-derived statistical relationships yields a global annual mean value of -1.5 +/- 0.5 Wm(-2). In an alternative approach, the radiative flux perturbation due to anthropogenic aerosols can be broken down into a component over the cloud-free portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol direct effect) and a component over the cloudy portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol indirect effect). An estimate obtained by scaling these simulated clear- and cloudy-sky forcings with estimates of anthropogenic tau(a) and satellite-retrieved N-d-tau(a) regression slopes, respectively, yields a global, annual-mean aerosol direct effect estimate of -0.4 +/- 0.2 Wm(-2) and a cloudy-sky (aerosol indirect effect) estimate of -0.7 +/- 0.5 Wm(-2), with a total estimate of -1.2 +/- 0.4 Wm(-2).

引用

页码：8697 / 8717

页数：21

共 135 条

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