Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: Importance of the secondary vegetation sink

被引:270
作者
Shevliakova, Elena [1 ]
Pacala, Stephen W. [1 ]
Malyshev, Sergey [1 ]
Hurtt, George C. [4 ]
Milly, P. C. D. [5 ]
Caspersen, John P. [2 ]
Sentman, Lori T. [6 ]
Fisk, Justin P. [4 ]
Wirth, Christian [7 ]
Crevoisier, Cyril [3 ]
机构
[1] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08542 USA
[2] Univ Toronto, Fac Forestry, Toronto, ON M5S 3B3, Canada
[3] Ecole Polytech, CNRS, IPSL, Meteorol Dynam Lab, F-91128 Palaiseau, France
[4] Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH 03824 USA
[5] US Geol Survey, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA
[6] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA
[7] Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07701 Jena, Germany
基金
美国海洋和大气管理局;
关键词
NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION; FOREST BIOMASS; MODEL; CLIMATE; ATMOSPHERE; DYNAMICS; BALANCE; PRODUCTIVITY; BIOSPHERE; AMAZON;
D O I
10.1029/2007GB003176
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
We have developed a dynamic land model (LM3V) able to simulate ecosystem dynamics and exchanges of water, energy, and CO2 between land and atmosphere. LM3V is specifically designed to address the consequences of land use and land management changes including cropland and pasture dynamics, shifting cultivation, logging, fire, and resulting patterns of secondary regrowth. Here we analyze the behavior of LM3V, forced with the output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model AM2, observed precipitation data, and four historic scenarios of land use change for 1700-2000. Our analysis suggests a net terrestrial carbon source due to land use activities from 1.1 to 1.3 GtC/a during the 1990s, where the range is due to the difference in the historic cropland distribution. This magnitude is substantially smaller than previous estimates from other models, largely due to our estimates of a secondary vegetation sink of 0.35 to 0.6 GtC/a in the 1990s and decelerating agricultural land clearing since the 1960s. For the 1990s, our estimates for the pastures' carbon flux vary from a source of 0.37 to a sink of 0.15 GtC/a, and for the croplands our model shows a carbon source of 0.6 to 0.9 GtC/a. Our process-based model suggests a smaller net deforestation source than earlier bookkeeping models because it accounts for decelerated net conversion of primary forest to agriculture and for stronger secondary vegetation regrowth in tropical regions. The overall uncertainty is likely to be higher than the range reported here because of uncertainty in the biomass recovery under changing ambient conditions, including atmospheric CO2 concentration, nutrients availability, and climate.
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页数:16
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