Incidence and predictors of very late recurrence of atrial fibrillation after ablation

Introduction: Radiofrequency catheter ablation can effectively treat patients with refractory atrial fibrillation (AF). Very late AF recurrence (>= 12 months post-ablation) is uncommon and may represent a unique patient cohort. Methods and Results: A nested case-control study was performed in the cohort who underwent AF ablation at the University of Pennsylvania to characterize patients who develop very late AF recurrence after ablation. The procedure consisted of isolation of pulmonary veins (PVs) demonstrating triggers and elimination of non-PV triggers initiating AF. Twenty-seven (7.9%) patients with very late recurrence were compared to 219 patients without recurrence and >= 12 months of follow-up. The mean age was 54.6 +/- 11.3 years and 79% were men. Very late recurrence patients more likely weighed > 200 lbs (70% vs 55%, P = 0.01); during initial ablation had fewer PVs isolated (2.8 +/- 1.1 vs 3.3 +/- 1.0, P = 0.03); and were less likely to have right inferior PV isolation (37% vs 61%, P = 0.02), less likely to have isolation of all PVs (30% vs 56%, P = 0.01), and more likely to have non-PV triggers (30% vs 11% OR 3.4(95% CI, 1.3-8.7), P = 0.01). PV reconnectivity and new triggers were found in the majority of patients with very late recurrence of AF who underwent repeat ablation. Conclusion: Very late recurrence of AF more likely occurred in patients > 200 lbs who demonstrated non-PV triggers and did not undergo right inferior PV isolation. The majority of patients undergoing repeat ablation for very late recurrence demonstrated PV reconnectivity and new non-PV and PV triggers not observed during the initial ablation.