Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

被引:614
作者
Etminan, M. [1 ]
Myhre, G. [2 ]
Highwood, E. J. [1 ]
Shine, K. P. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
[2] CICERO Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
CLIMATE SENSITIVITY; SOLAR;
D O I
10.1002/2016GL071930
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750-2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m(-2) to 0.61 W m(-2)) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750-2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario.
引用
收藏
页码:12614 / 12623
页数:10
相关论文
共 36 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], P 8 ATM RAD MEAS ARM
[2]  
[Anonymous], 1987, CLIMAT MONITOR
[3]   Radiative forcing at high concentrations of well- mixed greenhouse gases [J].
Byrne, B. ;
Goldblatt, C. .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2014, 41 (01) :152-160
[4]   Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) [J].
Collins, W. D. ;
Ramaswamy, V. ;
Schwarzkopf, M. D. ;
Sun, Y. ;
Portmann, R. W. ;
Fu, Q. ;
Casanova, S. E. B. ;
Dufresne, J. -L. ;
Fillmore, D. W. ;
Forster, P. M. D. ;
Galin, V. Y. ;
Gohar, L. K. ;
Ingram, W. J. ;
Kratz, D. P. ;
Lefebvre, M. -P. ;
Li, J. ;
Marquet, P. ;
Oinas, V. ;
Tsushima, Y. ;
Uchiyama, T. ;
Zhong, W. Y. .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2006, 111 (D14)
[5]  
Fomichev V., 2010, SPARC REPORTS, P71
[6]   Evaluation of radiation scheme performance within chemistry climate models [J].
Forster, Piers M. ;
Fomichev, Victor I. ;
Rozanov, Eugene ;
Cagnazzo, Chiara ;
Jonsson, Andreas I. ;
Langematz, Ulrike ;
Fomin, Boris ;
Iacono, Michael J. ;
Mayer, Bernhard ;
Mlawer, Eli ;
Myhre, Gunnar ;
Portmann, Robert W. ;
Akiyoshi, Hideharu ;
Falaleeva, Victoria ;
Gillett, Nathan ;
Karpechko, Alexey ;
Li, Jiangnan ;
Lemennais, Perrine ;
Morgenstern, Olaf ;
Oberlaender, Sophie ;
Sigmond, Michael ;
Shibata, Kiyotaka .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2011, 116
[7]   Resolution of the uncertainties in the radiative forcing of HFC-134a [J].
Forster, PMD ;
Burkholder, JB ;
Clerbaux, C ;
Coheur, PF ;
Dutta, M ;
Gohar, LK ;
Hurley, MD ;
Myhre, G ;
Portmann, RW ;
Shine, KP ;
Wallington, TJ ;
Wuebbles, D .
JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE SPECTROSCOPY & RADIATIVE TRANSFER, 2005, 93 (04) :447-460
[8]   Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario [J].
Hansen, J ;
Sato, M ;
Ruedy, R ;
Lacis, A ;
Oinas, V .
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2000, 97 (18) :9875-9880
[9]   GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES AS FORECAST BY GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES 3-DIMENSIONAL MODEL [J].
HANSEN, J ;
FUNG, I ;
LACIS, A ;
RIND, D ;
LEBEDEFF, S ;
RUEDY, R ;
RUSSELL, G ;
STONE, P .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 1988, 93 (D8) :9341-9364
[10]  
Haywood JM, 1997, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V123, P1907, DOI 10.1002/qj.49712354307