Temporal patterns and transport processes in recruitment of spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) postlarvae to south Florida

We used time-series analysis to identify weekly and annual patterns in the supply of spiny lobster, Panulirus argus (Latreille, 1804), postlarvae to the Florida Keys, USA, over an 8 yr period. We also investigated the relationship between postlarval influx and wind forcing as a transport mechanism using the complex vector-scalar correlation analysis. Postlarval supply had a lunar phase periodicity at 4.5 wk intervals, with postlarval abundance peaking between the new moon and first-quarter lunar phases. A distinct annual cycle of postlarval supply with two peak periods was also apparent. Cross-correlation analysis between relative postlarval abundance and a 12 mo cycle showed that the annual peak occurs in spring, centered around March. With the 12 mo periodicity removed, a smaller peak at 5 mo intervals was also well defined. Wind-forcing for 7 d prior to the time of postlarval collection was marginally correlated with postlarval abundance through the entire time-series; the association was strongest during the late fall to early spring months. The analysis indicated that postlarval supply was correlated with winds from the northeast (ca. 45 degrees), which are associated with winter atmospheric fronts. In contrast to results reported for other spiny lobster populations, these patterns suggest that recruitment of lobster postlarvae to south Florida is predictable only at a gross level and is presumably affected by the temporally inconsistent structure of regional oceanic gyres and variability in the timing of lobster spawning in the Caribbean.