Coupling disease-progress-curve and time-of-infection functions for predicting yield loss of crops

被引:26
作者
Madden, LV [1 ]
Hughes, G
Irwin, ME
机构
[1] Ohio State Univ, Ohio Agr Res & Dev Ctr, Dept Plant Pathol, Wooster, OH 44691 USA
[2] Univ Edinburgh, Inst Ecol & Resource Management, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, Midlothian, Scotland
[3] Univ Illinois, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA
关键词
crop loss assessment; disease management strategies; quantitative epidemiology;
D O I
10.1094/PHYTO.2000.90.8.788
中图分类号
Q94 [植物学];
学科分类号
071001 ;
摘要
A general approach was developed to predict the yield loss of crops in relation to infection by systemic diseases. The approach was based on two premises: (i) disease incidence in a population of plants over time can be described by a nonlinear disease progress model, such as the logistic or monomolecular; and (ii) yield of a plant is a function of time of infection (t) that can be represented by the (negative) exponential or similar model (zeta(t)). Yield loss of a population of plants on a proportional scale (L) can be written as the product of the proportion of the plant population newly infected during a very short time interval (X'(t)dr) and zeta(t), integrated over the time duration of the epidemic. L in the model can be expressed in relation to directly interpretable parameters: maximum per-plant yield loss (alpha, typically occurring at t = 0); the decline in per-plant loss as time of infection is delayed (gamma; units of time(-1)); and the parameters that characterize disease progress over rime, namely, initial disease incidence (X-0), rate of disease increase (r; units of time(-1)), and maximum (or asymptotic) value of disease incidence (K). Based on the model formulation, L ranges from alpha X-0 to alpha K and increases with increasing X-0, r, K, alpha, and gamma(-1). The exact effects of these parameters on L were determined with numerical solutions of the model. The model was expanded to predict L when there was spatial heterogeneity in disease incidence among sites within a field and when maximum per-plant yield loss occurred at a time other than the beginning of the epidemic (t > 0). However, the latter two situations had a major impact on L only at high values of r. The modeling approach was demonstrated by analyzing data on soybean yield loss in relation to infection by Soybean mosaic virus, a member of the genus Potyvirus, Based on model solutions, strategies to reduce or minimize yield losses from a given disease can be evaluated.
引用
收藏
页码:788 / 800
页数:13
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