Rise in serum albumin and creatinine in the first half year on hemodialysis

Background. Serum albumin and creatinine have been reported to rise in new hemodialysis patients; however, these trends have not been quantitated in a stable cohort, and their determinants and prognostic value are unknown. Methods. This study examined the changes in monthly values of serum albumin and creatinine over the first half year of hemodialysis in 115 patients who survived to the start of the sixth month. After verifying that the trends were approximately linear, we calculated the rates of rise (slope) of six predialysis values of serum albumin (months 1 through 6) and of creatinine (months 2 through 7) and examined their associations with age, diabetes, race, baseline 24-hour urine protein and creatinine excretion, and survival during the latter half of the first year. Results. Serum albumin rose by 13% over months 1 through 6 [0.08 +/- 0.12 (SD) g/dl/month, P < 10(-9) vs. zero slope]. Patients who survived the entire year had higher mean values for both serum albumin (month 1, P < 0.003; months 3 through 6, P < 10(-3)) and rate of rise of albumin (0.09 +/- 0.11 g/dl/month vs. 0.01 +/- 0.13 g/dl/month, P < 0.005) than patients who died during months 6 through 12, but the slope was not an independent predictor of survival after adjusting for serum albumin concentration. Baseline proteinuria correlated inversely with serum albumin measured at the first and second months (P < 0.005) and directly with the albumin slope (r = 0.49, P < 10(-5)). Serum creatinine rose by 12% between months 2 through 7 (0.12 +/- 0.47 mg/dl/month, P < 0.02). Survivors had a significantly higher mean baseline creatinine excretion (P < 0.03) and serum creatinine (month 2, P < 0.03; months 3 through 7, P < 0.01) but only a marginally higher rate of rise of serum creatinine (0.16 +/- 0.41 mg/dl/month vs. -0.07 +/- 0.48 mg/dl/ month, P < 0.06) than patients who died during the second half of the year. Baseline urinary creatinine excretion correlated directly with serum creatinine at month 2 (P < 0.01) and more strongly at months 3 through 7 (P < 10(-3)), as well as correlating with the creatinine slope (r = 0.26, P < 0.03). Conclusions. Serum albumin and creatinine rose by 12 to 13% during the first half year of hemodialysis in a stable cohort. The slope of serum albumin versus time predicted survival, but it was not as predictive as the absolute albumin concentration. The pattern of correlations of baseline urinary protein and creatinine excretion with the respective monthly serum values of albumin and creatinine and their slopes is consistent with the hypothesis that as residual renal function declines, progressive retention of protein and creatinine contributes to the respective rises in serum albumin and creatinine.