Quantifying weighted expert opinion: The future of interactive television and retailing

被引：13

作者：

Dransfeld, H ^{[1
]}

Pemberton, J ^{[1
]}

Jacobs, G ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Coll Swansea, European Business Management Sch, Swansea SA2 8PP, W Glam, Wales

来源：

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2000年 / 63卷 / 01期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00059-1

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This core of this paper is a description and discussion of a way of quantifying data gathered using a Delphi survey, in this case concerned with attempting to predict the future of interactive television for retailing in the luxury and performance car industry. The analysis of the data was based, not on the standard cross-impact matrix approach to handling quantifiable information within Delphi surveys, but on a novel alternative method which allows the data to be expressed in terms of probabilities (the basic equations are probability statements using binomial probabilities and Bayes's formula) and takes into account, in a well-founded way, different levels of respondents' expertise. The method owes something to the work of D.V. Lindley. To the knowledge of the authors of this paper, and despite its suitability for the purpose, Lindley's approach to quantifying weighted expert opinions has never before been used in conjunction with a Delphi survey. The analysis for an example question from the questionnaire used in the survey is given in detail, and the results of four other questions are discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.

引用

页码：81 / 90

页数：10

共 23 条

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