Exploring changes in the spatial distribution of livestock in China

China's livestock sector is very dynamic as a consequence of increasing demands for animal products. This paper explores the spatial distribution of different groups of livestock in China. Relations between the spatial pattern of livestock distribution and a large number of socio-economic and biophysical variables have been derived by correlation and regression analysis. The thus derived relations are used in a spatially explicit, dynamic simulation model to explore near-future changes in land use and livestock distribution. A baseline scenario and a scenario with improved management of grasslands are evaluated. The results indicate that for both scenarios most increases in livestock numbers are to be expected in China's agricultural region. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.