A pacemaker for the long wave

Exploratory eigenanalysis of fluctuations in the U.S. inflation rate and rate of economic growth 1790-1995 reveals cyclicalities of similar to 6, similar to 9, 18-19, and 54-57 years. There is strong evidence of entrainment by an 18.61-year geophysical cycle: periods of maximum lunisolar forcing are associated with troughs in building cycles and with the succession of long-wave crises: long-wave (deflationary) troughs, long-wave (stagflationary) peaks, and primary (disinflationary) troughs. Pairs of similar to 9-year business cycles are mode-locked within the 18-19-year period, showing alternating strength and weakness on the upswing and downswing phases, and there also is evidence of an similar to 6-year ENSO-like growth rhythm. The implication for technological forecasting is profound: a geophysical pacemaker might well control the periodic reappearance of long-wave crises, and therefore, the clustering of the innovations that drive successive surges of technological change. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.