Budgetary consolidation in Europe: Quality, economic conditions, and persistence

被引：53

作者：

von Hagen, J

Hallett, AH

Strauch, R

机构：

[1] Univ Bonn, ZEI, D-53113 Bonn, Germany

[2] Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN USA

[3] Univ Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland

[4] ECB, D-60311 Frankfurt, Germany

来源：

JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES | 2002年 / 16卷 / 04期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1006/jjie.2002.0516

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

In this article we study the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments and macroeconomic conditions for the persistence of budgetary consolidations. In contrast to previous work in this area, we do not arbitrarily predefine a measure of persistence to evaluate consolidation "success." By employing duration analysis techniques, the length of a consolidation spell is rather determined endogenously. Our results based on a sample of industrialised OECD countries show that "consolidation fatigue" and the quality of fiscal consolidations are indeed important determinants of their longevity. Moreover, high debt-GDP ratio and fiscal tightening in other OECD countries raise the likelihood of consolidations to persist.

引用

页码：512 / 535

页数：24