Implied volatility in the UK commercial property market: Empirical evidence based on transaction data

The primary aim of this research is to compute implied volatility based on a stochastic contingent claim valuation model proposed by Dixit and Pindyck (1994). Over the sample period of 1984 to 1997, and with approximately 20,000 commercial property transactions in the United Kingdom, we find that implied volatility of rental returns is in the region of 24.83 percent. Over the same sample period, the historical and conditional standard deviations of the log returns of transaction-based rental series is estimated to be 15.60 percent and 35.64 percent, respectively. The tests of information content of these risk measures show that there is strong orthogonality in the information impounded in implied volatility estimates compared to that contained in historical standard deviations.