Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

被引：619

作者：

Scaife, A. A. ^{[1
]}

Arribas, A. ^{[1
]}

Blockley, E. ^{[1
]}

Brookshaw, A. ^{[1
]}

Clark, R. T. ^{[1
]}

Dunstone, N. ^{[1
]}

Eade, R. ^{[1
]}

Fereday, D. ^{[1
]}

Folland, C. K. ^{[1
,2
]}

Gordon, M. ^{[1
]}

Hermanson, L. ^{[1
,3
]}

Knight, J. R. ^{[1
]}

Lea, D. J. ^{[1
]}

MacLachlan, C. ^{[1
]}

Maidens, A. ^{[1
]}

Martin, M. ^{[1
]}

Peterson, A. K. ^{[1
]}

Smith, D. ^{[1
]}

Vellinga, M. ^{[1
]}

Wallace, E. ^{[1
]}

Waters, J. ^{[1
]}

Williams, A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[2] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden

[3] Willis Res Network, London, England

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2014年 / 41卷 / 07期

关键词：

signal-to-noise ratio; prediction; regional climate; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION; CLIMATE; SYSTEM;

D O I：

10.1002/2014GL059637

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability.

引用

页码：2514 / 2519

页数：6

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