Climate spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors

被引：32

作者：

Mudelsee, M. ^{[1
,2
]}

Scholz, D. ^{[3
,4
,6
]}

Roethlisberger, R. ^{[1
]}

Fleitmann, D. ^{[5
]}

Mangini, A. ^{[3
]}

Wolff, E. W. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge CB3 0ET, England

[2] Climate Risk Anal, Hannover, Germany

[3] Heidelberg Acad Sci, Heidelberg, Germany

[4] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol Isotope Grp, Bristol, Avon, England

[5] Univ Bern, Inst Geol Sci, Bern, Switzerland

[6] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland

来源：

NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS | 2009年 / 16卷 / 01期

关键词：

TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; MONSOON; AUTOCORRELATION; VARIABILITY; WINDOWS; RECORD; OMAN;

D O I：

10.5194/npg-16-43-2009

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We introduce an algorithm (called REDFITmc2) for spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors. It is based on the Lomb-Scargle periodogram for unevenly spaced time series, in combination with the Welch's Overlapped Segment Averaging procedure, bootstrap bias correction and persistence estimation. The timescale errors are modelled parametrically and included in the simulations for determining (1) the upper levels of the spectrum of the red-noise AR(1) alternative and (2) the uncertainty of the frequency of a spectral peak. Application of REDFITmc2 to ice core and stalagmite records of palaeoclimate allowed a more realistic evaluation of spectral peaks than when ignoring this source of uncertainty. The results support qualitatively the intuition that stronger effects on the spectrum estimate (decreased detectability and increased frequency uncertainty) occur for higher frequencies. The surplus information brought by algorithm REDFITmc2 is that those effects are quantified. Regarding timescale construction, not only the fixpoints, dating errors and the functional form of the age-depth model play a role. Also the joint distribution of all time points (serial correlation, stratigraphic order) determines spectrum estimation.

引用

页码：43 / 56

页数：14

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