Using forecasts of earnings to simultaneously estimate growth and the rate of return on equity investment

被引:116
作者
Easton, P [1 ]
Taylor, G
Shroff, P
Sougiannis, T
机构
[1] Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[2] Univ Melbourne, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia
[3] Univ Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA
[4] Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1111/1475-679X.00066
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
We develop a method for simultaneously estimating the cost of equity capital and the growth in residual earnings that are implied by current stock prices, current book value of equity, and short-term forecasts of accounting earnings. We demonstrate the use of our method by calculating the expected equity risk premium. Our estimate is higher than estimates in extant studies that are based on the same earnings forecast data. The main difference between our study and these papers is that while they provide arguments supporting an assumed rate of growth beyond the forecast horizon, we estimate this rate.
引用
收藏
页码:657 / 676
页数:20
相关论文
共 19 条
[1]   Equity premia as low as three percent? Evidence from analysts' earnings forecasts for domestic and international stock markets [J].
Claus, J ;
Thomas, J .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 2001, 56 (05) :1629-1666
[2]  
EASTON P, 2001, COST CAPITAL IMPLICA
[3]   AGGREGATE ACCOUNTING EARNINGS CAN EXPLAIN MOST OF SECURITY RETURNS - THE CASE OF LONG RETURN INTERVALS [J].
EASTON, PD ;
HARRIS, TS ;
OHLSON, JA .
JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING & ECONOMICS, 1992, 15 (2-3) :119-142
[4]   Industry costs of equity [J].
Fama, EF ;
French, KR .
JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS, 1997, 43 (02) :153-193
[5]   THE CROSS-SECTION OF EXPECTED STOCK RETURNS [J].
FAMA, EF ;
FRENCH, KR .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 1992, 47 (02) :427-465
[6]   The equity premium [J].
Fama, EF ;
French, KR .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 2002, 57 (02) :637-659
[7]  
FISHER I, 1965, THEORY INTEREST DETE
[8]   Toward an implied cost of capital [J].
Gebhardt, WR ;
Lee, CMC ;
Swaminathan, B .
JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, 2001, 39 (01) :135-176
[9]  
IBBOTSON R, 2001, STOCKS BONDS BILLS I
[10]  
Judge GG, 1988, Introduction to the theory and practice of econometrics, V2nd