Towards Risk Scoring of Bitcoin Transactions

If Bitcoin becomes the prevalent payment system on the Internet, crime fighters will join forces with regulators and enforce blacklisting of transaction prefixes at the parties who offer real products and services in exchange for bitcoin. Blacklisted bitcoins will be hard to spend and therefore less liquid and less valuable. This requires every recipient of Bitcoin payments not only to check all incoming transactions for possible blacklistings, but also to assess the risk of a transaction being blacklisted in the future. We elaborate this scenario, specify a risk model, devise a prediction approach using public knowledge, and present preliminary results using data from selected known thefts. We discuss the implications on markets where bitcoins are traded and critically revisit Bitcoin's ability to serve as a unit of account.