Long-term variability and changes of the precipitation regime in Pakistan

This paper presents an examination of precipitation amounts in Pakistan. For this purpose, the annual precipitation and the annual number of precipitation days have been calculated, and a study aimed at investigating precipitation intensity and decadal changes was conducted. Precipitation trends have been calculated using a simple linear regression method and Kendall's tau-based test. To assess stability and differences, a 10-year span was determined for each precipitation region for the period of 1951-2010. This study focused on the three CLINO (Climatological Normal) periods, namely 1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010 (the latest global standard normal period). Results confirm the gradual increase of annual precipitation in southwestern coastal areas of Pakistan and Cholistan desert. With regard to annual number of precipitation days, in the central part of the country negative trends were evident for wet days (with precipitation a parts per thousand 0.1 mm), while the number of rainy days (with precipitation a parts per thousand 1 mm) displayed a prominent positive trend. The series of the precipitation intensity gives evidence of a minor decrease in the Baluchistan Plateau, sub-Himalayas, and Potwar Plateau during the study period. Examination of secular trends evidenced that the Murree hills, the upper Indus plain, and the northwestern Baluchistan plateau have had shifts in their precipitation regime towards drier conditions, while the central plain, the northwestern mountains, and the southern part of the country are shifting in their precipitation regime towards wetter conditions. Description among the means of precipitation amounts suggests that "normal" precipitation data for various national projects should be calculated for the last 30 years.