Two approaches to quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes

被引:48
作者
Lopez, Ana
Tebaldi, Claudia
New, Mark
Stainforth, Dave
Allen, Myles
Kettleborough, Jamie
机构
[1] Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Climate Res Lab, Oxford OX1 3QY, England
[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[3] Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Climate Res Lab, Oxford, England
[4] Met Off, Climate Res Data Applicat, Exeter, Devon, England
关键词
D O I
10.1175/JCLI3895.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
A Bayesian statistical model developed to produce probabilistic projections of regional climate change using observations and ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) is applied to evaluate the probability distribution of global mean temperature change under different forcing scenarios. The results are compared to probabilistic projections obtained using optimal fingerprinting techniques that constrain GCM projections by observations. It is found that, due to the different assumptions underlying these statistical approaches, the predicted distributions differ significantly in particular in their uncertainty ranges. Results presented herein demonstrate that probabilistic projections of future climate are strongly dependent on the assumptions of the underlying methodologies.
引用
收藏
页码:4785 / 4796
页数:12
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