Breaking the path of institutional development? Alternatives to the new determinism

The concept of path dependence is being used in highly deterministic ways in neo-institutionalist analysis, so that studies using this framework have difficulty in accounting for, or predicting, change. However, the original Polya urn model from which path-dependence theory draws predicts that alternative paths will be possible. It can then be argued that actors will be able to use these when they perceive a need to change. This article seeks to capture this possibility through accommodating a Bayesian parametric decision-maker interacting with an environment. This makes it possible to examine how change may involve such processes as: the use of past or redundant institutional repertoires; transfer of experience across action spaces; or from other agents, through networks of structured relationships; the emergence of perceived 'one best' solutions. This approach points to the need to change how typologies are used in neo-institutionalist research, so that those features of cases that do not fit the pre-conceived framework of a type are not disregarded as 'noise', but properly evaluated as potential resources for change.