Planning for an unpredictable future: Transport in Great Britain in 2030

被引：25

作者：

Chatterjee, Kiron ^{[1
]}

Gordon, Andrew

机构：

[1] Univ W England, Ctr Transport & Soc, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England

[2] Mott MacDonald, Southampton S050 9NW, Hants, England

来源：

TRANSPORT POLICY | 2006年 / 13卷 / 03期

关键词：

scenario planning; forecasting; travel demand; traffic growth;

D O I：

10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.11.003

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper describes a research study, which explores alternative future scenarios for Great Britain in the year 2030 and the implications these have for travel demand and transport provision. Five alternative future scenarios are represented in the GB national transport model and forecasts are obtained for trip making, traffic levels, congestion and emissions in 2030. For all scenarios it is expected that there will be significant traffic growth. Traffic growth is restricted most in scenarios including distance-based road charging on motorways and trunk roads. However, congestion and carbon dioxide emissions are most effectively limited in scenarios with congestion-based road charging, major improvements to urban public transport and investment in new fuel technologies and in improving engine efficiency. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：254 / 264

页数：11