Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?

被引:368
作者
Jaimovich, Nir [1 ]
Rebelo, Sergio [2 ]
机构
[1] Stanford Univ, Dept Econ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[2] Northwestern Univ, Dept Finance, Kellogg Sch Management, Evanston, IL 60208 USA
关键词
INVESTMENT; ADJUSTMENT; GROWTH;
D O I
10.1257/aer.99.4.1097
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycles, so the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most models fail. We propose a untied model that generates aggregate and sectoral comovement in response to contemporaneous and news shocks about fundamentals. The fundamentals that we consider are aggregate and sectoral total factor productivity shocks as well as investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and preferences that allow us to parameterize the strength of short-run wealth effects on the labor supply. (JEL E13, E20, E32)
引用
收藏
页码:1097 / 1118
页数:22
相关论文
共 42 条
[1]   AN INTERTEMPORAL MODEL OF SAVING AND INVESTMENT [J].
ABEL, AB ;
BLANCHARD, OJ .
ECONOMETRICA, 1983, 51 (03) :675-692
[2]  
[Anonymous], RESUSCITATING UNPUB
[3]   TIME-SEPARABLE PREFERENCES AND INTERTEMPORAL-SUBSTITUTION MODELS OF BUSINESS CYCLES [J].
BARRO, RJ ;
KING, RG .
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, 1984, 99 (04) :817-839
[4]   An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles [J].
Beaudry, P ;
Portier, F .
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS, 2004, 51 (06) :1183-1216
[5]   When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings? [J].
Beaudry, Paul ;
Portier, Franck .
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY, 2007, 135 (01) :458-477
[6]  
Bernanke BS, 1999, HBK ECON, V15, P1341
[7]  
Beveridge W.H., 1909, UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM
[8]   Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal [J].
Blanchard, Olivier .
PORTUGUESE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 2007, 6 (01) :1-21
[9]  
Burns ArthurF., 1947, MEASURING BUSINESS C
[10]   Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities [J].
Burnside, C .
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS, 1996, 37 (02) :177-201