Intercontinental Impacts of Ozone Pollution on Human Mortality

被引:95
作者
Anenberg, Susan Casper [1 ]
West, J. Jason [1 ]
Fiore, Arlene M. [2 ]
Jaffe, Daniel A. [3 ]
Prather, Michael J. [4 ]
Bergmann, Daniel [5 ]
Cuvelier, Kees [6 ]
Dentener, Frank J. [6 ]
Duncan, Bryan N.
Gauss, Michael [7 ,8 ]
Hess, Peter [9 ,10 ]
Jonson, Jan Eiof [8 ]
Lupu, Alexandru [11 ]
MacKenzie, Ian A. [12 ]
Marmer, Elina
Park, Rokjin J. [13 ]
Sanderson, Michael G. [7 ,14 ]
Schultz, Martin [15 ]
Shindell, Drew T. [16 ,17 ]
Szopa, Sophie [8 ,18 ]
Garcia Vivanco, Marta [19 ]
Wild, Oliver [20 ]
Zang, Guang [21 ]
机构
[1] Univ N Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27515 USA
[2] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA
[3] Univ Washington Bothell, Bothell, WA USA
[4] Univ Calif Irvine, Irvine, CA USA
[5] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Div Atmospher Sci, Livermore, CA USA
[6] Commiss European Communities, DG Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
[7] Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
[8] Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway
[9] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[10] Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY USA
[11] York Univ, Ctr Res Earth & Space Sci, N York, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
[12] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Midlothian, Scotland
[13] Harvard Univ, Atmospher Chem Modeling Grp, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[14] Hadley Ctr, Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England
[15] Forschungszentrum Julich, ICG 2, Julich, Germany
[16] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
[17] Columbia Univ, New York, NY USA
[18] UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm,IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France
[19] CIEMAT, E-28040 Madrid, Spain
[20] Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YW, England
[21] Univ Cambridge, Dept Chem, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Cambridge CB2 1TN, England
关键词
TROPOSPHERIC OZONE; HEALTH-BENEFITS;
D O I
10.1021/es900518z
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Ozone exposure is associated with negative health impacts, including premature mortality. Observations and modeling studies demonstrate that emissions from one continent influence ozone air quality over other continents. We estimate the premature mortalities avoided from surface ozone decreases obtained via combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide, nonmethane volatile organic compound, and carbon monoxide emissions in North America (NA), East Asia (EA), South Asia (SA), and Europe (EU). We use estimates of ozone responses to these emission changes from several atmospheric chemical transport models combined with a health impact function. Foreign emission reductions contribute approximately 30%, 30%, 20%, and > 50% of the mortalities avoided by reducing precursor emissions in all regions together in NA, EA, SA, and EU, respectively. Reducing emissions in NA and EU avoids more mortalities outside the source region than within, owing in part to larger populations in foreign regions. Lowering the global methane abundance by 20% reduces mortality most in SA,followed by EU, EA, and NA. For some source-receptor pairs, there is greater uncertainty in our estimated avoided mortalities associated with the modeled ozone responses to emission changes than with the health impact function parameters.
引用
收藏
页码:6482 / 6487
页数:6
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