Combining the Coffin-Manson formula with a lognormal distribution continues to be an effective method to model the effects: of thermal stressing upon VLSI IC package reliability, This approach is applied to Thin Film Cracking (TFC) and several other failure mechanisms relevant to IC packages. The Coffin-Manson exponent, m, is found to lie in one of three relatively narrow ranges: m for ductile metal fatigue is similar to 1-3 m for commonly used IC metal alloys and intermetallics is similar to 3-5, while m for brittle fracture is similar to 6-8.