Large earthquakes initiate by the acceleration of slips on the downward extensions of seismogenic faults

In order to examine the relationship between anomalous crustal deformations and subsequent large earthquakes, we compiled and examined data on preseismic anomalous crustal deformations for two earthquakes that occurred in and around the Japanese Islands in recent years. We found that the slip on a downward extension of a seismogenic fault accelerates before the main shock and that the average slip velocity is inversely proportional to the time remaining until the main shock occurs. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.