Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks

被引：25

作者：

House, Thomas ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Warwick, Warwick Infect Dis Epidemiol Res Ctr WIDER, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England

[2] Univ Warwick, Warwick Math Inst, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England

来源：

ELIFE | 2014年 / 3卷

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

case fatality ratio; Ebola; Ebola virus; epidemiology; global health; infectious disease; microbiology; none; R0;

D O I：

10.7554/eLife.03908

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Ebola is a deadly virus that causes frequent disease outbreaks in the human population. Here, we analyse its rate of new introductions, case fatality ratio, and potential to spread from person to person. The analysis is performed for all completed outbreaks, and for a scenario where these are augmented by a more severe outbreak of several thousand cases. The results show a fast rate of new outbreaks, a high case fatality ratio, and an effective reproductive ratio of just less than 1.

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