Probabilistic integrated assessment of "dangerous" climate change

被引：159

作者：

Mastrandrea, MD ^{[1
]}

Schneider, SH

机构：

[1] Stanford Univ, Interdisciplinary Grad Program Environm & Resourc, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[2] Stanford Univ, Dept Sci Biol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[3] Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2004年 / 304卷 / 5670期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.1094147

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from similar to45% under minimal controls to near zero.

引用

页码：571 / 575

页数：5

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