Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America

被引:97
作者
Maurer, E. P. [1 ]
Adam, J. C. [2 ]
Wood, A. W. [3 ]
机构
[1] Santa Clara Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Santa Clara, CA 95053 USA
[2] Washington State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Pullman, WA 99164 USA
[3] Tier Grp, Seattle, WA USA
关键词
LAND-SURFACE WATER; MIDSUMMER DROUGHT; COUPLED MODEL; DOUBLED CO2; SIMULATION; CIRCULATION; RESOURCES; NCEP/NCAR; RISK;
D O I
10.5194/hess-13-183-2009
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Temperature and precipitation from 16 climate models each using two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A2) were used to characterize the range of potential climate changes for the Rio Lempa basin of Central America during the middle (2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21st century. A land surface model was applied to investigate the hydrologic impacts of these changes, focusing on inflow to two major hydropower reservoirs. By 2070-2099 the median warming relative to 1961-1990 was 1.9 degrees C and 3.4 degrees C under B1 and A2 emissions, respectively. For the same periods, the models project median precipitation decreases of 5.0 % (B1) and 10.4 % (A2). Median changes by 2070-2099 in reservoir inflow were 13 % (B1) and 24 % (A2), with largest flow reductions during the rising limb of the seasonal hydrograph, from June through September. Frequency of low flow years increases, implying decreases in firm hydropower capacity of 33 % to 53 % by 2070-2099.
引用
收藏
页码:183 / 194
页数:12
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