A drought-based predictor of recent haze events in western Indonesia

被引：33

作者：

Field, RD

Wang, Y

Roswintiarti, O

Guswanto

机构：

[1] Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forestry Serv, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada

[2] Indonesian Natl Inst Aeronaut & Space, Jakarta Timur 13220, Indonesia

[3] Indonesian Bur Meteorol & Geophys, Jakarta 10720, Indonesia

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT | 2004年 / 38卷 / 13期

关键词：

air quality; forest fires; peat; El Nino; bootstrap;

D O I：

10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.01.011

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Indonesia's fire and haze problem is reviewed, and a model quantifying the relationship between drought and haze from biomass burning in western Indonesia is presented. Visibility observations from weather stations in Sumatra and Kalimantan were used as a haze indicator. The Drought Code component of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System was used as a drought indicator. Using meteorological data from 1994 to 1998, we obtained regional haze and drought signals for western Indonesia. Nonlinear regression analysis was performed between the two signals to obtain a model of haze potential based on the Drought Code. Using the curvature properties of the nonlinear model, we estimated that severe haze is likely above a threshold Drought Code of 388.2. Using this threshold value, we propose four levels of drought that can be used operationally as an early warning tool in managing Indonesia's serious haze problem. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：1869 / 1878

页数：10

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