Patterns of agrarian transition

Economic reforms have induced important output and productivity changes in the agricultural sectors of transition countries (TCs). There are, however, large differences between the countries in terms of the direction and the magnitude of these changes. For example, agricultural output increased considerably in the East Asian TCs, while there was a large output fall in the Central and East European countries (CEECs) and the former Soviet Union (FSU) during transition (fig. 1).1 Our objective in this article is to analyze the causes of these differences in performance. In general, postreform economic performance is affected by several factors, including the choice of the reform policies, initial conditions, disruption of exchange relationships, regional tensions and conflict, and statistical problems. While there is fairly general agreement that all these factors have affected the economic performance of TCs, there is less agreement on the relative importance of these various factors. The issue is especially important for policy implications. The debate regarding the relative importance of the various factors-and what it implies regarding the optimal reform policies-has been most intense concerning the Chinese reforms.