Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: A third demographic transition

This article explores the implications of the recent trends and projections of the ethnic or foreign-origin populations of selected European countries. It suggests that if the composition of these European populations continues to change as projected, the resulting ethnic and social transformation should be regarded as a "third demographic transition." On conservative assumptions, the foreign-origin proportions of these populations are projected to rise to between 15 percent and over 30 percent by mid-century with almost linear rates of change. The proportion of the foreign-origin populations from non-European background is expected to increase from about one-half today to about two-thirds by mid-century, up to 20 percent. Interethnic unions moderate the growth of some immigrant-origin populations strictly defined, while introducing a new diversity from rapidly growing heterogeneous mixed-origin populations that may eventually defy categorization. But no official projections incorporate such categories. Migration assumptions are more important than fertility assumptions in determining the outcome. Given the dependence of this ethnic change upon immigration, it is not inevitable but is substantially dependent on political events and public policy decisions. However, most of the official projections discussed here assume little or no moderation of flows up to their end-points in mid-century.