Prediction of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components

被引:61
作者
Kane, RP [1 ]
机构
[1] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil
关键词
D O I
10.1023/A:1005298313886
中图分类号
P1 [天文学];
学科分类号
0704 ;
摘要
A simple method MEM-MRA, where spectral peaks are located by MEM (Maximum Entropy Method) and about a dozen most prominent ones are used in MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) to estimate their amplitudes and phases, was applied to the sunspot number (Rz) series of 1748-1996. Spectral characteristics were different in the successive 3 intervals of 83 years each. Hence, for predictions, only data for the recent 83 years were considered relevant. From the spectra for 1914-1996, the most significant peaks at 5.3, 8.3, 10.5, 12.2, 47 years were used for reconstruction. The match between observed and reconstructed values was good (correlation +0.90). When extrapolated, the reconstructed values indicate a sunspot number maximum for the present solar cycle 23 as 140 +/- 9, to occur in year 2000 and for the next solar cycle 24 as 105 +/- 9, to occur in year 2010-2011.
引用
收藏
页码:217 / 224
页数:8
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