Episode selection for ozone modelling and control strategies analysis on the Swiss Plateau

An episode selection procedure was developed and applied to select sets of days representing characteristic meteorological conditions leading to high ozone episodes over the Swiss Plateau. The selection procedure was applied to data extending from January 1991 through December 1998, and is comprised of two steps: First. days were classified according to observed air quality and meteorological characteristics using classification and regression trees analysis (CART). Second, the CART results were used in conjunction with observed air quality data to identify sets of days characteristic of those leading to elevated ozone. These sets of days were selected to optimise how well a limited number of days represented seasonal air quality, and that formed longer episodes for use in the air quality modelling. CART analysis was performed for three zones of the Swiss Plateau that have different air quality and meteorological characteristics. The results for two zones were used together in the episode selection procedure in order to identify days representative for the whole Plateau. Meteorological analysis for a third zone suggested that it Would be strongly impacted by pollutants transported in from outside the country. One thousand and eight hundred optimisation runs were performed to minimise the likelihood that the set of days was a local optimum, increasing the robustness for use in air quality modelling analysis. Fifteen days, grouped in four episodes ranging from 3 to 5 days were selected along with their calculated representativeness (or weight) to recreate a seasonal metric. The variety of local as well as regional meteorological characteristics showed that the episode selection procedure chose days representing a diverse set of meteorological situations which are associated with elevated ozone. This set of episodes can now be used to test air quality strategies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.