Computing travel time reliability-in transportation networks with multistates and dependent link failures

The measurement of transportation network travel time reliability is imperative to provide drivers with accurate route guidance information and to generate the shortest path (or alternative paths) connecting origins and destinations, especially under conditions of varying demands and limited capacities. Previous studies assumed that link failures in a road network are statistically independent and that reliability probabilities are perfectly determinable. In real life, these assumptions are dubious, because the failure of a link in one particular area does not necessarily result in the complete failure of the neighboring link, but may lead to deterioration of its performance. This paper presents a new methodology to study the multistate system reliability analysis of transportation networks for which one cannot formulate an "all or nothing" type of failure criterion and in which dependent link failures are considered. The methodology is presented, using a numerical example, for computing the probability that travel time between an origin and a destination may exceed a threshold.