Multiyear variability in the near-surface temperature structure of the midlatitude western North Atlantic Ocean

Between 1966 and 1995, subsurface temperature data have been collected in the western North Atlantic Ocean using expendable bathythermographs. Data coverage is sparse in both time and space, but evidence for decadal variability in the upper 400 m of the water column is found. The data were averaged by month onto a 2 degrees of latitude by 4 degrees of longitude grid. Thirty-one quadrangles in the region bounded by 17 degrees N and 43 degrees N and 78 degrees W and 66 degrees W have sufficient data to provide consistent results. Anomaly time series at 0, 100, 200, 300, and 400 m were estimated by subtracting a mean monthly climatology. The individual records were detrended and filtered to highlight the longer-period signals. The analysis resulted in 25-year records (1969-1993) for study. Within the thermocline of the subtropical gyre and the Gulf Stream at 100 and 200 m, periods of predominately positive temperature anomaly end in 1971, 1982, and 1990, while periods of negative anomaly end in 1976 and 1985. Only the events ending in 1971, 1976, and 1990 are in the majority of the records at 300 and 400 m. Most of the events also appear in the sea surface temperature (SST) records but are somewhat masked by significant noise at the surface. Meridional-vertical temperature sections through the subtropical gyre show that transitions from negative to positive anomaly events are characterized by a deepening of the isotherms throughout the section and transitions from positive to negative events by a rising of the isotherms. Significant lateral migration of the axis of the Gulf Stream, although possibly masked by the 2 degrees averaging, is not necessary to explain either type of event. The transitions in the SST and 100-m temperature time series occur at essentially the same time as the transitions in an index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAG) that has also been detrended (i.e., 1971, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988). The 1971, 1976, and 1988 NAO events are also observed at 300 and 400 m as described earlier. Periods of positive subsurface temperature anomaly are coincidental with periods of positive NAO index, and periods of negative subsurface temperature anomaly are coincidental with periods of negative NAO index. Thus earlier results showing connections between the NAO and western Atlantic SST at decadal timescales are now extended to at least 400 m in the water column. Trends were computed from the individual 25-year records. The trends at all depths are predominately negative north of 38 degrees N and positive south of 38 degrees N. Inferences from the horizontal distribution of the trends and results from earlier studies suggest that the 1969-1993 period may be a phase of a 30- to 50-year signal observed in the northern Atlantic since the beginning of the century.