We develop an equilibrium theory of credit rating in the presence of rollover risk. By influencing rational creditors, ratings affect sovereigns' probability of default, which in turn affects ratings. Our analysis reveals a pro-cyclical impact of credit rating: In equilibrium the presence of a rating agency increases default risk when it is high and decreases default risk when it is low.
机构:
Univ Tecn Lisboa, Dept Econ, ISEG UTL, Lisbon, Portugal
European Cent Bank, Directorate Gen Econ, Fiscal Policies Div, D-60311 Frankfurt, GermanyInt Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
Afonso, Antonio
;
Furceri, Davide
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机构:
Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
Univ Palermo, I-90128 Palermo, ItalyInt Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
Furceri, Davide
;
Gomes, Pedro
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h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Carlos III Madrid, Dept Econ, E-28903 Getafe, SpainInt Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
机构:
Univ Tecn Lisboa, Dept Econ, ISEG UTL, Lisbon, Portugal
European Cent Bank, Directorate Gen Econ, Fiscal Policies Div, D-60311 Frankfurt, GermanyInt Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
Afonso, Antonio
;
Furceri, Davide
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
Univ Palermo, I-90128 Palermo, ItalyInt Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
Furceri, Davide
;
Gomes, Pedro
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Carlos III Madrid, Dept Econ, E-28903 Getafe, SpainInt Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA